Sero-prevalence findings from metropoles in Pakistan: implications for assessing COVID-19 prevalence and case-fatality within a dense, urban working population

Abstract

Population-level serologic testing has demonstrated groundbreaking results in monitoring the prevalence and case-fatality of COVID-19 within a population. In Pakistan, Getz Pharma conducted a sero-prevalence survey on a sample of 24,210 individuals using the IgG/IgM Test Kit (Colloidal gold) with follow-up and sequential testing after every 15-20 days on a sub-sample. This is the first of its kind, large scale census conducted on a dense, urban, working population in Pakistan. The study results reveal that from 24,210 individuals screened, 17.5% tested positive, with 7% IgM positive, 6.0% IgG positive and 4.5% combined IgM and IgG positive. These findings have been extrapolated to the rest of the urban, adult, working population of Pakistan, and as of 6th July, 2020, 4.11 million people in Pakistan have been infected with COVID-19, which is 17.7 times higher than the current number of 231,818 symptom-based PCR cases reported by the government which exclude asymptomatic cases.